Abstract:

This paper extends the real option model of the timing of merger and acquisition under economic policy uncertainty by integrating the characteristics of biased industrial policy, empirically studies the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the timing of crossborder M&As using the data of Chinese listed enterprises from 2002 to 2018, and examines the role of industrial policy in the above impact. Theoretical studies reveal that rising uncertainty will delay the optimal timing of corporate M&As, and industrial policies will alleviate the above effects, thereby making M&As show “contrarian” characteristics. Empirical tests confirm the “contrarian” characteristics of Chinese enterprises overseas M&As, and find that China's “fiveyear plan” industrial policy is an important driving force for Chinese enterprises to “buck the trend”. Mechanism analysis shows that the “fiveyear plan” industrial policy affects the timing of crossborder M&As through easing financial constraints and increasing subsidies. Compared with enterprises that did not carry out crossborder M&As, enterprises that carried out crossborder M&As have significantly increased their access to loan funds and government subsidy funds. Enterprises' expectations of these “policy benefits” have further boosted their crossborder M&As decisions.

Key words: crossborder M&, A, economic policy uncertainty, industrial policy, real option

摘要： 本文通过融入偏向性产业政策特征，拓展了在经济政策不确定下企业并购时机选择的实物期权模型。本文使用2002—2018年中国上市企业海外并购数据，从微观层面检验了经济政策不确定性对企业海外并购时机选择的影响以及产业政策对上述影响的调节作用。理论研究发现不确定性升高会导致企业最优并购时机延后，产业政策会缓解上述影响从而使得并购呈现“逆势”特征。实证检验证实了中国企业海外并购存在“逆势”特征，且“五年规划”产业政策是中国企业呈现“逆势”并购特征的重要推动力。机制分析显示，“五年规划”产业政策通过缓解融资约束和增加政府补贴两个渠道影响企业海外并购时机选择。相对于未实施海外并购的企业，在上一期实施了并购的企业获得贷款资金和国家补贴资金显著提高。企业对上述“政策收益”的预期进一步助推了其海外并购决策。

关键词: 海外并购, 经济政策不确定性, 产业政策, 实物期权  ,