Abstract: Defined as the difference between government final accounts and the budget spending, expenditure budget deviation is directly concerned with the establishment of modern budget system and the effect of positive fiscal policy on improving quality and efficiency. The theory of budget maximization points out that local governments pursue the maximization of discretionary budget, which will lead to budget expenditure exceeding final accounts expenditure, while fiscal expenditure decentralization facilitates the conditions for local governments to pursue the maximization of discretionary budget. Therefore, fiscal expenditure decentralization is an important factor leading to the deviation of expenditure budget. Based on the provincial data and the aggregate data of cities and counties on fiscal budget and final accounts from 1994 to 2017, this paper finds that the higher the degree of decentralization of fiscal expenditure, the greater the deviation of government expenditure budget. Various robustness tests support the conclusion. Moreover, economic development and fiscal transparency can reduce the impact. Adjusting the authority between different levels of government, establishing a fiscal system in which the powers of governments are commensurate with their respective spending obligations and moderately strengthening central authority and expenditure responsibility will effectively reduce government expenditure budget deviation.

Key words: fiscal expenditure decentralization, expenditure budget deviation, budget maximization

摘要： 政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。

关键词: 财政支出分权, 支出预算偏离, 预算最大化