Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 31-42.
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DU Yan
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杜焱
作者简介:
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJY020);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373075);湖南省社会科学基金基地项目(12JDZ19)
Abstract: Revealing the variation of effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was an important basis for reasonable regulating of government consumption scale and allocating of government public resourcesBy using the 1978—2011 data,and using threshold cointegration model for empirical research on the relationship between government consumption scale and economic growth,this paper found there existed threshold cointegration relation between government consumption scale and economic growth,and the effect of government consumption scale on the economic growth was always negativeWhen the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP declined to 01782 previously in the period of 1978—1986,the promotion effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was smallerWhen the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP fell to 01782 around 1987,the effect of government consumption scale on economic growth took place nonlinear transferWith further reducing government consumption scale,the promoting effect of government consumption scale on economic growth was significantly strengthened from 1996—2011The empirical results showed continuously compressing the government consumption scale would improve economic efficiency,especially when the government consumption scale being controlled below critical value 01782,the role of government consumption promoting economic growth would get stronger
Key words: government consumption scale , economic growth , threshold effect , government consumption management
摘要: 揭示政府消费规模对经济增长的效应变化是合理调控政府消费规模和有效配置政府公共资源的重要依据。本文利用1978—2011年的数据,运用阈值协整模型对我国政府消费规模与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。本文发现,二者存在阈值协整关系,且政府消费规模对经济增长的效应始终为负,当政府消费占GDP的比重下降至0178 2(1978—1986年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应较小;当政府消费占GDP比重下降至0178 2(1987年左右),政府消费规模对经济增长的效应发生非线性转移;随着政府消费规模的进一步降低(1996—2011年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应显著加强。实证结论表明,不断压缩政府消费规模有助于经济效率提升,尤其是将政府消费规模合理控制在临界值0178 2以下,可以更好地发挥政府消费对经济增长的促进作用。
关键词: 政府消费规模 , 经济增长 , 阈值效应 , 政府消费管理
DU Yan. THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION SCALE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2014, 34(8): 31-42.
杜焱. 政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2014, 34(8): 31-42.
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