经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 45-61.

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房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

  

  1. 中国人民大学公共管理学院
  • 出版日期:2020-08-16 发布日期:2020-09-07
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家自然科学基金项目“货币政策冲击下的住房市场情绪波动和房价溢出效应研究——基于媒体大数据情绪指数的分析”(71874197)、“房地产调控效果的空间异质性:理论框架及基于中国256城市大数据的实证研究”(71874195)和中国人民大学“统筹支持一流大学和一流学科建设”经费的资助。

TRANSREGIONAL INFLUENCE OF HOUSING PRICES ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION——Empirical Analysis Based on the Spatial Panel Data of 278 Cities in China

  1. School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2020-08-16 Published:2020-09-07

摘要: 本文首先基于住房财富效应,构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异:不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应,使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后,本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据,通过空间面板杜宾模型,实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异,以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示:(1)虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应,但西部城市财富效应并不显著,并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。(2)不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著,而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。(3)不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后,本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角,为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。

关键词: 财富效应, 房价, 居民消费, 空间效应, 空间面板杜宾模型

Abstract: A theoretical framework on the transregional influence of housing prices on household consumption, is proposed based on housing wealth effect theory. In this framework, housing wealth effect is regionally heterogeneous, and regional housing price fluctuation can generate a chain reaction to household consumption in neighbor regions due to spatial diffusion of housing prices, transregional consumption of residents, and imitation of consumption. We adopt the Spatial Durbin Model to examine the regional heterogeneity of housing wealth effect and the transregional influence of housing prices on household consumption based on the panel data of 278 cities in China from 2000 to 2018. Results show the following: (1) Housing wealth affects China entirely. However, this effect is insignificant in western cities, and negative housing wealth affects core cities. (2) The transregional effects of housing prices on household consumption are distinct across different cities. Housing prices in eastern and core cities significantly and positively affect the household consumption of neighbor cities, whereas those of periphery cities significantly and negatively affect neighbor cities. (3) The household consumption among different cities includes spatial imitation. From the perspective of spatial linkage of housing prices and household consumption, policy recommendations are proposed to stimulate demand and regulate real estate market.

Key words: housing wealth effect, housing prices, household consumption, spatial correlation, Spatial Durbin model